Chicago St.

Conference:	WAC
Expected RPI:	335.0
Current RPI:	335
Expected SOS:	133
Current SOS:	133
Current Record:	1-29
Expected Record:	1-29
Current Conf Record:	1-14
Expected Conf Record:	1-14
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:	0-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:	0-3
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:	0-4
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:	0-13
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:	1-8
Current OOC Record:	0-15
Expected OOC Record:	0-15
Expected OOC RPI:	339
Expected OOC SOS:	171

RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final Record	Expected RPI	Probability
1-29	335.0	100.00%

NEW!: Change any future/past game to a win/loss/prob(win) and see the resulting predicted RPI:

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Chicago St..
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

Date	Opponent (Expected RPI)	Conf	Location	Score	Outcome	Prob(W)
11-10	Iowa (157.0)	B10	A	95-62	L	0%
11-12	Purdue (9.0)	B10	A	111-42	L	0%
11-16	Notre Dame (70.0)	ACC	A	105-66	L	0%
11-18	Northern Iowa (138.0)	MVC	A	82-44	L	0%
11-23	UMBC (111.0)	AE	A	84-73	L	0%
11-24	Presbyterian (319.0)	BSth	N	75-73	L	0%
11-26	Drake (166.0)	MVC	A	79-67	L	0%
11-29	Marquette (58.0)	BE	A	95-69	L	0%
12-2	Northern Illinois (241.0)	MAC	H	77-95	L	0%
12-9	Oakland (182.0)	Horz	A	82-50	L	0%
12-11	Northwestern (168.0)	B10	A	96-31	L	0%
12-16	Bradley (105.0)	MVC	H	58-84	L	0%
12-19	SIU Edwardsville (287.0)	OVC	A	88-76	L	0%
12-27	Wisconsin (114.0)	B10	A	82-70	L	0%
12-30	Western Michigan (177.0)	MAC	A	92-71	L	0%
1-6	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	H	60-97	L	0%
1-11	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	A	67-64	L	0%
1-13	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	A	83-58	L	0%
1-18	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	H	58-86	L	0%
1-20	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	H	78-89	L	0%
1-27	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	H	81-87	L	0%
2-1	Cal St. Bakersfield (220.0)	WAC	A	91-61	L	0%
2-3	Grand Canyon (156.0)	WAC	A	89-55	L	0%
2-8	Utah Valley (83.0)	WAC	H	57-97	L	0%
2-10	Seattle (165.0)	WAC	H	81-91	L	0%
2-15	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	A	76-67	L	0%
2-22	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	A	78-67	L	0%
2-24	UT Rio Grande Valley (229.0)	WAC	A	83-75	L	0%
3-3	UMKC (256.0)	WAC	H	96-82	W	100%
3-8	New Mexico St. (35.0)	WAC	N	97-70	L	0%

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.

Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations

Chicago St.'s RPI BROKEN DOWN BY CONTRIBUTION OF INDIVIDUAL TEAMS AND WINNING PERCENTAGES

Chicago St.'s winning percentage is the adjusted winning percentage (for home and away games) and the others are standard winning percentages excluding games against Chicago St..

RPI Impact is equal to 2*(Winning percentage - 50%)* Weight and measures how helpful an individual team is to the RPI.

For an explanation of this section read here.

Click on any column to sort. Initially sorted by Future Weight.

Team	Conf	Curr Wgt	Fut Wgt	Curr W/L	Exp W/L	Curr Impact	Exp Impact
Chicago St.	WAC	26.33	26.33	2.38	2.38	-25.07	-25.07
New Mexico St.	WAC	5.79	5.79	81.48	81.48	3.64	3.64
Grand Canyon	WAC	4.27	4.27	63.33	63.33	1.14	1.14
Seattle	WAC	4.21	4.21	53.57	53.57	0.30	0.30
Utah Valley	WAC	4.18	4.18	62.96	62.96	1.08	1.08
UT Rio Grande Valley	WAC	4.12	4.12	39.29	39.29	-0.88	-0.88
UMKC	WAC	4.12	4.12	25.93	25.93	-1.98	-1.98
Cal St. Bakersfield	WAC	4.11	4.11	28.00	28.00	-1.81	-1.81
Drake	MVC	1.83	1.83	46.67	46.67	-0.12	-0.12
Purdue	B10	1.82	1.82	81.82	81.82	1.16	1.16
Wisconsin	B10	1.82	1.82	43.75	43.75	-0.23	-0.23
Bradley	MVC	1.80	1.80	58.06	58.06	0.29	0.29
Iowa	B10	1.80	1.80	40.62	40.62	-0.34	-0.34
Northern Illinois	MAC	1.77	1.77	34.48	34.48	-0.55	-0.55
Northern Iowa	MVC	1.77	1.77	44.83	44.83	-0.18	-0.18
Northwestern	B10	1.77	1.77	43.33	43.33	-0.24	-0.24
Western Michigan	MAC	1.75	1.75	48.28	48.28	-0.06	-0.06
Marquette	BE	1.74	1.74	58.06	58.06	0.28	0.28
Oakland	Horz	1.69	1.69	56.25	56.25	0.21	0.21
SIU Edwardsville	OVC	1.69	1.69	27.59	27.59	-0.76	-0.76
Notre Dame	ACC	1.67	1.67	56.25	56.25	0.21	0.21
Presbyterian	BSth	1.67	1.67	25.00	25.00	-0.83	-0.83
UMBC	AE	1.67	1.67	66.67	66.67	0.56	0.56
Illinois	B10	0.29	0.29	41.94	41.94	-0.05	-0.05
Loyola Chicago	MVC	0.27	0.27	84.38	84.38	0.19	0.19
Central Michigan	MAC	0.26	0.26	53.33	53.33	0.02	0.02
Valparaiso	MVC	0.24	0.24	43.33	43.33	-0.03	-0.03
Michigan	B10	0.23	0.23	79.41	79.41	0.13	0.13
Georgia Southern	SB	0.21	0.21	61.29	61.29	0.05	0.05
Maryland	B10	0.21	0.21	58.06	58.06	0.03	0.03
Minnesota	B10	0.21	0.21	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Penn St.	B10	0.21	0.21	61.76	61.76	0.05	0.05
Michigan St.	B10	0.20	0.20	87.88	87.88	0.15	0.15
Evansville	MVC	0.19	0.19	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Southern Illinois	MVC	0.19	0.19	59.38	59.38	0.04	0.04
Grambling St.	SWAC	0.19	0.19	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Nicholls St.	Slnd	0.17	0.17	60.71	60.71	0.04	0.04
New Mexico	MWC	0.17	0.17	54.55	54.55	0.02	0.02
UTEP	CUSA	0.17	0.17	33.33	33.33	-0.06	-0.06
UC Riverside	BW	0.17	0.17	24.14	24.14	-0.09	-0.09
North Carolina St.	ACC	0.16	0.16	65.62	65.62	0.05	0.05
Eastern Michigan	MAC	0.16	0.16	58.62	58.62	0.03	0.03
Illinois St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
Indiana St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	37.93	37.93	-0.04	-0.04
Missouri St.	MVC	0.16	0.16	53.12	53.12	0.01	0.01
IUPUI	Horz	0.15	0.15	32.14	32.14	-0.06	-0.06
Indiana	B10	0.15	0.15	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Idaho	BSky	0.15	0.15	68.97	68.97	0.06	0.06
Rutgers	B10	0.15	0.15	42.42	42.42	-0.02	-0.02
Southeast Missouri St.	OVC	0.14	0.14	41.38	41.38	-0.02	-0.02
Saint Mary's	WCC	0.14	0.14	84.85	84.85	0.10	0.10
UC Irvine	BW	0.14	0.14	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Ball St.	MAC	0.14	0.14	58.06	58.06	0.02	0.02
Toledo	MAC	0.14	0.14	66.67	66.67	0.05	0.05
San Diego	WCC	0.14	0.14	56.67	56.67	0.02	0.02
Detroit	Horz	0.13	0.13	20.00	20.00	-0.08	-0.08
Georgia Tech	ACC	0.13	0.13	40.62	40.62	-0.02	-0.02
Vermont	AE	0.13	0.13	78.79	78.79	0.08	0.08
Milwaukee	Horz	0.13	0.13	48.39	48.39	-0.00	-0.00
DePaul	BE	0.13	0.13	35.48	35.48	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska	B10	0.13	0.13	68.75	68.75	0.05	0.05
Ohio St.	B10	0.13	0.13	75.00	75.00	0.06	0.06
Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.11	0.11	62.07	62.07	0.03	0.03
Arizona	P12	0.11	0.11	79.41	79.41	0.07	0.07
Idaho St.	BSky	0.11	0.11	42.86	42.86	-0.02	-0.02
Tennessee Martin	OVC	0.11	0.11	27.59	27.59	-0.05	-0.05
Delaware	CAA	0.11	0.11	38.71	38.71	-0.03	-0.03
Belmont	OVC	0.11	0.11	72.73	72.73	0.05	0.05
Buffalo	MAC	0.11	0.11	75.76	75.76	0.06	0.06
Texas A&M Corpus Chris	Slnd	0.11	0.11	30.77	30.77	-0.04	-0.04
SMU	Amer	0.11	0.11	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
South Dakota St.	Sum	0.11	0.11	80.00	80.00	0.07	0.07
Longwood	BSth	0.11	0.11	13.33	13.33	-0.08	-0.08
Wichita St.	Amer	0.11	0.11	78.12	78.12	0.06	0.06
Miami FL	ACC	0.11	0.11	70.97	70.97	0.05	0.05
Duke	ACC	0.11	0.11	78.79	78.79	0.06	0.06
Eastern Illinois	OVC	0.11	0.11	34.48	34.48	-0.03	-0.03
Creighton	BE	0.11	0.11	64.52	64.52	0.03	0.03
Villanova	BE	0.11	0.11	88.24	88.24	0.08	0.08
UMass Lowell	AE	0.11	0.11	37.93	37.93	-0.03	-0.03
Xavier	BE	0.11	0.11	84.85	84.85	0.07	0.07
Virginia Tech	ACC	0.10	0.10	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
St. John's	BE	0.10	0.10	46.88	46.88	-0.01	-0.01
Green Bay	Horz	0.10	0.10	33.33	33.33	-0.03	-0.03
Cleveland St.	Horz	0.10	0.10	32.35	32.35	-0.04	-0.04
Louisville	ACC	0.10	0.10	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
UCLA	P12	0.09	0.09	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Charleston Southern	BSth	0.09	0.09	42.86	42.86	-0.01	-0.01
Manhattan	MAAC	0.09	0.09	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Penn	Ivy	0.09	0.09	74.19	74.19	0.04	0.04
South Dakota	Sum	0.08	0.08	73.33	73.33	0.04	0.04
UTSA	CUSA	0.08	0.08	53.33	53.33	0.01	0.01
Weber St.	BSky	0.08	0.08	60.71	60.71	0.02	0.02
Colorado St.	MWC	0.08	0.08	32.26	32.26	-0.03	-0.03
Davidson	A10	0.08	0.08	65.62	65.62	0.03	0.03
Prairie View A&M	SWAC	0.08	0.08	45.45	45.45	-0.01	-0.01
USC	P12	0.08	0.08	67.65	67.65	0.03	0.03
Akron	MAC	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Bowling Green	MAC	0.08	0.08	46.67	46.67	-0.01	-0.01
Kent St.	MAC	0.08	0.08	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Miami OH	MAC	0.08	0.08	45.16	45.16	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Louis	A10	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
UT Arlington	SB	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Iowa St.	B12	0.08	0.08	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Hartford	AE	0.08	0.08	58.06	58.06	0.01	0.01
Tennessee St.	OVC	0.08	0.08	46.43	46.43	-0.01	-0.01
Illinois Chicago	Horz	0.08	0.08	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
North Carolina	ACC	0.08	0.08	71.43	71.43	0.03	0.03
Little Rock	SB	0.08	0.08	20.00	20.00	-0.05	-0.05
Northern Kentucky	Horz	0.08	0.08	68.97	68.97	0.03	0.03
Butler	BE	0.08	0.08	60.61	60.61	0.02	0.02
Arkansas	SEC	0.06	0.06	67.65	67.65	0.02	0.02
Fresno St.	MWC	0.06	0.06	63.33	63.33	0.02	0.02
Lamar	Slnd	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
Northern Arizona	BSky	0.06	0.06	13.33	13.33	-0.05	-0.05
BYU	WCC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Campbell	BSth	0.06	0.06	46.43	46.43	-0.00	-0.00
Gardner Webb	BSth	0.06	0.06	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Hawaii	BW	0.06	0.06	53.57	53.57	0.00	0.00
High Point	BSth	0.06	0.06	40.74	40.74	-0.01	-0.01
Incarnate Word	Slnd	0.06	0.06	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Kansas St.	B12	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
Kentucky	SEC	0.06	0.06	70.59	70.59	0.02	0.02
Liberty	BSth	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
North Dakota	BSky	0.06	0.06	33.33	33.33	-0.02	-0.02
Radford	BSth	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Sam Houston St.	Slnd	0.06	0.06	51.72	51.72	0.00	0.00
UC Davis	BW	0.06	0.06	66.67	66.67	0.02	0.02
UNC Asheville	BSth	0.06	0.06	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
USC Upstate	ASun	0.06	0.06	10.71	10.71	-0.05	-0.05
Winthrop	BSth	0.06	0.06	57.14	57.14	0.01	0.01
Austin Peay	OVC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Bethune Cookman	MEAC	0.06	0.06	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
California	P12	0.06	0.06	25.81	25.81	-0.03	-0.03
Eastern Washington	BSky	0.06	0.06	56.25	56.25	0.01	0.01
Hampton	MEAC	0.06	0.06	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Kennesaw St.	ASun	0.06	0.06	28.57	28.57	-0.02	-0.02
Murray St.	OVC	0.06	0.06	82.76	82.76	0.04	0.04
North Texas	CUSA	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Ohio	MAC	0.06	0.06	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
Oklahoma St.	B12	0.06	0.06	57.58	57.58	0.01	0.01
Portland	WCC	0.06	0.06	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
Rice	CUSA	0.06	0.06	17.24	17.24	-0.04	-0.04
South Carolina	SEC	0.06	0.06	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Tennessee Tech	OVC	0.06	0.06	54.84	54.84	0.01	0.01
Texas A&M	SEC	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Texas St.	SB	0.06	0.06	41.94	41.94	-0.01	-0.01
Washington	P12	0.06	0.06	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Washington St.	P12	0.06	0.06	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
South Carolina St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	26.67	26.67	-0.03	-0.03
Albany	AE	0.05	0.05	67.74	67.74	0.02	0.02
Binghamton	AE	0.05	0.05	31.03	31.03	-0.02	-0.02
Maine	AE	0.05	0.05	13.33	13.33	-0.04	-0.04
Nebraska Omaha	Sum	0.05	0.05	24.14	24.14	-0.03	-0.03
New Hampshire	AE	0.05	0.05	27.59	27.59	-0.02	-0.02
Stony Brook	AE	0.05	0.05	38.71	38.71	-0.01	-0.01
Tennessee	SEC	0.05	0.05	75.76	75.76	0.03	0.03
Fort Wayne	Sum	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Colorado	P12	0.05	0.05	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Towson	CAA	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Wake Forest	ACC	0.05	0.05	35.48	35.48	-0.02	-0.02
Boise St.	MWC	0.05	0.05	73.33	73.33	0.02	0.02
Florida A&M	MEAC	0.05	0.05	24.24	24.24	-0.03	-0.03
Georgetown	BE	0.05	0.05	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Mississippi Valley St.	SWAC	0.05	0.05	12.50	12.50	-0.04	-0.04
Morgan St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
Norfolk St.	MEAC	0.05	0.05	43.33	43.33	-0.01	-0.01
North Carolina Central	MEAC	0.05	0.05	51.61	51.61	0.00	0.00
Providence	BE	0.05	0.05	61.76	61.76	0.01	0.01
Robert Morris	NEC	0.05	0.05	48.48	48.48	-0.00	-0.00
Seton Hall	BE	0.05	0.05	65.62	65.62	0.02	0.02
LSU	SEC	0.05	0.05	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Mount St. Mary's	NEC	0.05	0.05	53.33	53.33	0.00	0.00
Boston College	ACC	0.05	0.05	55.88	55.88	0.01	0.01
Pittsburgh	ACC	0.05	0.05	25.00	25.00	-0.03	-0.03
Syracuse	ACC	0.05	0.05	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Virginia	ACC	0.05	0.05	93.94	93.94	0.04	0.04
Wright St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	71.88	71.88	0.02	0.02
Youngstown St.	Horz	0.05	0.05	20.00	20.00	-0.03	-0.03
Western Kentucky	CUSA	0.05	0.05	69.70	69.70	0.02	0.02
Charlotte	CUSA	0.03	0.03	17.86	17.86	-0.02	-0.02
North Carolina A&T	MEAC	0.03	0.03	56.25	56.25	0.00	0.00
UNC Greensboro	SC	0.03	0.03	77.42	77.42	0.02	0.02
VMI	SC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Alcorn St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.00	25.00	-0.01	-0.01
Appalachian St.	SB	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Central Connecticut	NEC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Eastern Kentucky	OVC	0.03	0.03	31.03	31.03	-0.01	-0.01
Florida Atlantic	CUSA	0.03	0.03	32.14	32.14	-0.01	-0.01
Jacksonville St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	62.50	62.50	0.01	0.01
Morehead St.	OVC	0.03	0.03	22.22	22.22	-0.02	-0.02
South Alabama	SB	0.03	0.03	40.00	40.00	-0.01	-0.01
Stetson	ASun	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Tulsa	Amer	0.03	0.03	61.29	61.29	0.01	0.01
UNLV	MWC	0.03	0.03	60.61	60.61	0.01	0.01
Western Illinois	Sum	0.03	0.03	33.33	33.33	-0.01	-0.01
Army	Pat	0.03	0.03	41.38	41.38	-0.00	-0.00
Brown	Ivy	0.03	0.03	38.46	38.46	-0.01	-0.01
Colgate	Pat	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Coppin St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	15.62	15.62	-0.02	-0.02
Delaware St.	MEAC	0.03	0.03	6.67	6.67	-0.02	-0.02
Drexel	CAA	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
La Salle	A10	0.03	0.03	40.62	40.62	-0.01	-0.01
Loyola MD	Pat	0.03	0.03	26.67	26.67	-0.01	-0.01
Maryland Eastern Shore	MEAC	0.03	0.03	16.67	16.67	-0.02	-0.02
Oklahoma	B12	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Sacred Heart	NEC	0.03	0.03	30.00	30.00	-0.01	-0.01
Saint Peter's	MAAC	0.03	0.03	43.75	43.75	-0.00	-0.00
Texas Tech	B12	0.03	0.03	72.73	72.73	0.01	0.01
The Citadel	SC	0.03	0.03	27.59	27.59	-0.01	-0.01
Wyoming	MWC	0.03	0.03	59.38	59.38	0.01	0.01
American	Pat	0.03	0.03	20.00	20.00	-0.02	-0.02
Georgia	SEC	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Mississippi	SEC	0.03	0.03	37.50	37.50	-0.01	-0.01
San Diego St.	MWC	0.03	0.03	67.74	67.74	0.01	0.01
VCU	A10	0.03	0.03	54.55	54.55	0.00	0.00
Alabama St.	SWAC	0.03	0.03	25.81	25.81	-0.01	-0.01
Baylor	B12	0.03	0.03	54.84	54.84	0.00	0.00
Clemson	ACC	0.03	0.03	71.88	71.88	0.01	0.01
Dartmouth	Ivy	0.03	0.03	23.08	23.08	-0.01	-0.01
Florida St.	ACC	0.03	0.03	64.52	64.52	0.01	0.01
Kansas	B12	0.03	0.03	79.41	79.41	0.01	0.01
Louisiana Lafayette	SB	0.03	0.03	80.65	80.65	0.02	0.02
New Orleans	Slnd	0.03	0.03	42.86	42.86	-0.00	-0.00
Oral Roberts	Sum	0.03	0.03	28.57	28.57	-0.01	-0.01
Southeastern Louisiana	Slnd	0.03	0.03	63.33	63.33	0.01	0.01
Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	41.94	41.94	-0.00	-0.00
Southern Utah	BSky	0.03	0.03	36.67	36.67	-0.01	-0.01
St. Francis NY	NEC	0.03	0.03	37.93	37.93	-0.01	-0.01
Temple	Amer	0.03	0.03	53.12	53.12	0.00	0.00
Texas Southern	SWAC	0.03	0.03	44.12	44.12	-0.00	-0.00
UAB	CUSA	0.03	0.03	58.06	58.06	0.00	0.00
Yale	Ivy	0.03	0.03	50.00	50.00	0.00	0.00
Fairfield	MAAC	0.02	0.02	51.52	51.52	0.00	0.00
Lipscomb	ASun	0.02	0.02	68.97	68.97	0.01	0.01